The tournament simulations are based off the most recent TWISTR Ratings and game data from past years' state tournaments. They are built by running 10,000 simulations of a Monte Carlo model, and should not necessarily be considered tournament probabilities. The percentages shown in the table below reflect the percentage of simulations in which a given team won a game in the prescribed round. Teams are organized in order of their placement on the bracket, with the caveat that until the semi-state draw is known, the semi-state simulations reflect a random draw among the four teams.
| 2023-24 IHSAA STATE TOURNAMENT SIMULATIONS | SECTIONAL | REGIONAL | SEMI-STATE | STATE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVR | CLASS | TEAM | SECT | RATING | QF | SF | SECT | REG | SF | SEMI | STATE | |
| 12 | 11 | Lake Central | 1 | +36.16 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 20.1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lawrence Central | 10 | +45.74 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 79.9 | |
| OVR | CLASS | TEAM | SECT | RATING | QF | SF | SECT | REG | SF | SEMI | STATE | |
| 7 | 1 | Norwell | 23 | +39.47 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 73.1 | |
| 20 | 3 | Gibson Southern | 32 | +32.62 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 26.9 | |
| OVR | CLASS | TEAM | SECT | RATING | QF | SF | SECT | REG | SF | SEMI | STATE | |
| 50 | 3 | Fort Wayne Luers | 37 | +22.09 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 73.3 | |
| 84 | 12 | Brownstown Central | 46 | +15.27 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 26.7 | |
| OVR | CLASS | TEAM | SECT | RATING | QF | SF | SECT | REG | SF | SEMI | STATE | |
| 115 | 7 | Marquette Catholic | 50 | +11.01 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 6.3 | |
| 27 | 1 | Lanesville | 61 | +29.41 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 93.7 | |