The regional round is complete, the Tournament Simulations (LIVE) page has been updated, and we're into the last two weeks of the state tournament. This is the second year with the one-game regional, two-game semi-state format, and while I have some annoyances about the process, I really do like the pacing of the new format.
With the semi-state draw now complete and teams looking ahead to Saturday, some thoughts on matchups and top contenders below. Again, rankings as presented are based on the latest TWISTR ratings in each class.
One phrase to describe the 4A North to this point: controlled chaos.
Taken individually, it's not surprising that Homestead downed No. 6 Columbia City in the sectional or that Noblesville and Lake Central beat No. 4 Fort Wayne Snider and No. 10 South Bend Washington respectively at the regional. When it's all put together though, you get a fairly unpredictable semi-state field that despite being somewhat surprising, is still very strong.
Noblesville is probably the best team left in the north half of the 4A draw, particularly when considering their record since Christmas — after a 7-7 start, the Millers are 10-1 in their last, including a pair of wins over Snider, sectional wins over No. 12 Fishers and No. 7 Hamilton Southeastern, and a win over their opponent in the afternoon game, Valparaiso. A few of these kids for Noblesville played on their 2022 state title team as well, led by senior Reagan Wilson and junior Meredith Tippner (who between soccer and basketball has more state championships than state tournament losses).
Homestead is probably next-best here in this balanced draw, and it's a program we're used to seeing deep in the 4A tournament. If you weren't aware of Myah Epps before this tournament, you probably are now — the sophomore picked up a Purdue offer the day after their upset of Columbia City in the sectional, and if the 23-4 Spartans are to make it to Indianapolis, it's likely because she plays well Saturday.
Don't be fooled by Lake Central's low ranking — aside from one all-time bad showing in the Hall of Fame Classic opener (a 60-22 loss to Jennings County), the Indians have very much looked the part and have a veteran core and a balanced scoring attack (no player averages in double figures). They played two phenomenal quarters of defense against South Bend Washington on Saturday (Washington went scoreless in the first and didn't get going in the fourth until the game was decided), and it's a group that made the semi-state championship game a year ago before running out of gas against Fishers.
Speaking of sophomores with Purdue offers, Lillian Barnes-led Valparaiso is a very live underdog in this field, with the Vikings' only two losses in 2024 being a 2-point defeat to No. 5 Lawrence North and a 5-point loss at Lake Central.
If the 4A North has been a bit of a surprise, the 4A South has been … less so, with all four pre-tournament regional favorites winning, including all three "odds-on" favorites, giving us a field with three of TWISTR's top nine squads in 4A.
Center Grove has traded the top spot with Lawrence Central throughout the tournament, and the Trojans looked the part of a state winner in a dominant third quarter Saturday at No. 14 Bedford North Lawrence. It's hard to focus on one player with all five starters for Center Grove being real scoring threats, and it's also hard to argue against them being the favorite here — since its Nov. 28 loss to Franklin (its only loss of the season), Center Grove has played just one game in single-digits, a Jan. 6 win over Jennings County (64-57).
That said, it's also hard to argue against Lawrence Central as the favorite, particularly given the favorable draw. The Bears, who hadn't won a tournament game since 2001 and entered the year with just one sectional title ever (1987), are finally delivering on the promise of their talented core, likely the best in 4A. Juniors Laila Abdurraqib and Jaylah Lampley and and sophomores Lola Lampley and Aniyah McKenzie all average double figures, and all should find homes at the D1 level. If this group, which doesn't rely on any seniors, breaks through this year, it could be the first of two straight titles for LC.
Franklin is probably a little overlooked here, but the Grizzly Cubs coasted this week at regional with a 69-30 win over Evansville North after surviving scares from Shelbyville and Whiteland in the sectional. Franklin is a veteran squad and, crucially from a preview perspective, handed Center Grove its only loss of the season Nov. 28 (after falling in OT in the Johnson County Tournament 10 days earlier).
Plainfield enters this field as a clear underdog, but also has the enviable position of playing with no pressure — the Quakers' two leading scorers are underclassmen (freshman Hannah Menser and Berkeley Williams), with just senior Payton Benge (12.7) graduating from their rotation. There's room to grow from their ugly regional win over Pike, too — Plainfield started just 5-for-20 at the free-throw line in that one.
We've anticipated a Norwell—Hamilton Heights tournament rematch pretty much since the final buzzer sounded in last year's 44-40 Heights regional win, and we get it out of the gate in the morning game at Huntington North.
Both teams are senior-led — Kennedy Fuelling and Makenzie Fuess for Norwell and Camryn Runner for Hamilton Heights — and both are programs that have had plenty of success in recent years without the breakthrough to get to Indianapolis. One likely will, and this is on the shortlist for the best matchups of the semi-state level.
NorthWood is one of the blue bloods of Indiana girls basketball, and while the Panthers are ranked outside the TWISTR top 20, they now have 20 wins to their name and did enter the tournament as a favorite to win a regional title. Incidentally, NorthWood being at this semi-state alongside neighboring Bremen gives 2015 vibes, when Rochester and Tippecanove Valley met in the 3A semi-state. By any metric, Bremen (which entered the tournament 11-11 and is ranked No. 46 in 3A by TWISTR) is the most surprising regional champion in the state, with TWISTR giving them just a 1.1% chance of a regional title before the tournament. The Lions would be one of the most shocking state finalists ever if they can find a way out of this field.
When a program making its third straight semi-state appearance is the underdog, you know you have an intriguing field in the 3A South.
Gibson Southern is the favorite here, as the Titans paved their way with another instant-classic win over No. 4 Evansville Memorial in the sectional before pulling away from No. 12 Washington on Saturday at the regional. Junior Gabby Spink — who recently hit the 1,000-point mark and is already Gibson Southern's all-time leader in assists — may be the best player in this field.
Speaking of blue bloods in 3A, Scottsburg won just its second sectional title since 1995 this year and backed it up with what was probably its best win of the year in the regional, downing No. 6 Greensburg, 62-51. The Warriorettes, who ran undefeated through the typically strong Mid-Southern Conference, have bounced back nicely since losing their last two regular-season games, and a return to state for the first time since 1989 would certainly evoke some nostalgia.
Danville was a team I highlighted as a dark horse in my pre-tournament preview, and Kaley May's team has cruised through an easy path to this semi-state. Danville is 23-3, with two losses to 4A regional winner Plainfield either side of a loss to a Silver Creek team that would be No. 8 in 3A if it was in its "native" class, and could be even better next year (juniors Emma Ancelet and Addison Davis lead them in scoring).
The same is true of Indianapolis Chatard, which did it again as the Trojans upset No. 8 Indian Creek at the regional for the second time in three years. Chatard coach Dan Wagner gets the most out of his teams, and their gritty style now has a pretty proven track record of success in February. Sophomore Olivia Berzai and junior Anna Caskey are in double figures, the latter averaging a double-double, and if they can get past Danville, avenging an early-season loss to either Gibson Southern or Scottsburg wouldn't at all be a shock.
Like the 3A North, we get the marquee matchup out of the gate: Fort Wayne Luers against Lapel in a statistical pick 'em (the two teams are separated by 0.08 points in TWISTR).
Lapel entered the year with the burden of expectations after a one-point loss to Forest Park in the state championship game last year, and the Bulldogs have delivered with a repeat regional title. Sophomore Laniah Wills is probably the best big in 2A, and senior Madelyn Poynter gives the reigning semi-state champs a nice one-two punch. Of note — Lapel is tournament-tested and has leaned on that in big fourth quarters to pull away from No. 9 Alexandria in the sectional and No. 4 Eastbrook at the regional.
Luers, however, has delivered on the promise they showed a year ago, when they pushed Lafayette Central Catholic at the regional with a no-senior squad. The Knights play one of the toughest schedules of any 2A team, owing to their Summit Conference membership, and hold the class' best win, a 65-55 overtime win over Columbia City on Dec. 18. A matchup between the two has the makings of a potential instant classic.
Andrean has had a lot of tournament success in 2A, and while this isn't the 59ers' best team by any stretch (Andrean is No. 31 in the latest 2A TWISTR rankings), they've found their way back to another semi-state. Andrean plays very low-scoring games, and so does Lewis Cass, who enters at 22-3 and gives up just 30.1 points per game. The Kings survived a sectional scare from North Miami and have surrendered more than 40 points just three times this season. Can the winner of the second semi-final make the title bout enough of a grind to pull out a low-scoring win?
Eastern Hancock is back here as expected, and the 24-1 Royals enter this field as a favorite a year after falling to North Knox in the semi-state opener. Super freshman McKenzie Koch has covered for the graduation of Grace Stapleton from last year's team, and seniors Sammie Bolding and Ruby White are also in double figures and provide good tournament experience for this group. A mid-season win at Lapel, 62-55, highlights the Royals' resume.
Another team that's back at the semi-state level in 2A? Linton-Stockton. I've talked a lot about Linton over the last couple weeks, and the Miners' inclusion in the Dark Horses category was a good call, as they knocked off No. 2 North Knox at the sectional in typical Linton fashion, with a 43-36 title win. Seniors Bradie Chambers and Sydney Jerrells give Linton great guard play, and the Miners are probably the best defensive team in 2A. A third state title in five years would cement Linton's status as one of 2A's best programs.
Brownstown Central played perhaps Saturday's most dramatic game — a 55-50, 2OT win over No. 19 South Spencer — and emerged from a tough sectional with a 45-33 win over No. 14 Austin. This program knows how to win in February (they've won five straight sectionals, the first three in 3A), and will be looking for a breakthrough. On the other hand, Sheridan (No. 22 in 2A in the latest TWISTR ratings) is a newcomer here as a first-time regional winner, but the Blackhawks are 20-game winners. No. 18 Northeastern didn't score in the fourth quarter until its last possession of Saturday's regional game, and junior Kenzie Garner (a Ferris State commit) gives them a star that could lead them to the upsets they need. Either underdog will likely need to knock off both top-10 teams in this balanced draw.
As far as TWISTR is concerned, we got a true draw in the 1A North, with favored Clinton Central drawing the lowest-rated team left playing in Union City. It's hard to find much wrong with Clinton Central's resume — the Bulldogs are 24-1, with a lone loss Nov. 17 at 2A No. 8 Carroll (Flora) and wins over 2A No. 10 Blackford and 2A regional champion Sheridan — and with three double-digit scoring threats, they have the kind of depth you like to see out of top contenders. The Bulldogs played Union City on Dec. 30, winning 74-35 via running clock, though the Indians have gotten junior Oaklee Reichard back since then, whose 8 points and 10 rebounds helped put them over the top in a sectional upset of No. 14 Tri. This game features the largest point spread (by a good distance) of all opening semi-state games.
The more intriguing matchup comes in the afternoon game, with Caston and Marquette Catholic separated by just one point in TWISTR. Caston opened 17-0 before a Jan. 11 loss to Tri-County (which the Comets avenged in the sectional title game, 37-36), and a 53-28 win over 2A regional winner Lewis Cass on Nov. 29 highlights the resume. A pair of double-digit scoring seniors (Isabel Scales and Addison Zimpleman) is always a good start for tournament success, and this Comets team has rallied nicely from a 1-3 close to the regular season.
It's been a little while since we talked about Marquette Catholic, but the 2018 and 2019 state champions are firmly back on the radar in 1A, perhaps even a year ahead of schedule. Like Caston, the Blazers have bounced back from a tough end to the regular season (losing their last two after starting 18-2), but differently, Marquette should be able to play loose Saturday — the Blazers play no seniors in their rotation and are led by sophomore Laniah Davis (19.3) and freshman Marissa Pleasant (10.4). At worst, Marquette bows out of the tournament Saturday and enters 2024-25 as one of the state favorites in 1A — at best, they emphatically announce their return with a semi-state title.
TWISTR sees this as the least competitive of Saturday's regional fields, and it has nothing to do with the calibre of teams at New Albany, but everything to do with the dominance of defending state champion Lanesville. Angie Hinton's program has probably been the best in 1A over the last five years — the Eagles are 124-13 over that stretch, and are more than halfway to two straight state titles without playing a single-digit game. TWISTR gives them a great chance of repeating that feat, with Lanesville already downing the only team within 10 points of them in the 1A ratings (No. 2 Borden in the sectional final). The scary thing? Lanesville may be better than its rating, as the Eagles got junior Shelby Allen (11.3) back in the middle of the season to join a core highlighted by junior Hadley Crosier (15.2) and senior Ava Kerr (10.3).
Lanesville, though, will be met with a strong field at New Albany, and if Lanesville is the program of the last five years in 1A, Jac-Cen-Del is the program of … probably forever in 1A. This is a rematch of last year's semi-state title bout, which Lanesville won 45-21, and we're no stranger to seeing Jac-Cen-Del on this stage — the Carolina blue and red Eagles have either won 20 games or won a regional in 10 of the last 11 years (going 19-7 with an OT loss to Waldron in the sectional final two years ago). As is often the case, Scott Smith has a veteran squad, led by seniors Julia Meyer (14.5) and Reagan Hughes (11.9).
Wood Memorial is the favorite in the second semi-final, and the Trojans were implicitly included in our Dark Horses category as one of four strong Sectional 64 squads hovering around .500 at the start of the tournament. The 16-10 record is a bit deceptive — Wood Memorial has played the sixth-toughest schedule in 1A, per TWISTR — and they've looked good at every stage of the tournament so far, including a sectional-opening 61-39 win over No. 9 Tecumseh. Their opponent is North Central (Farmersburg), who finally broke through at the regional level Saturday with the day's best comeback, reversing a 13-point second-half deficit to beat Bethesda Christian. Junior Jalyn Davidson (17.9) took over the second half of that game, and perhaps notably, North Central's 51-50 Nov. 11 loss to Lanesville should provide hope of a state appearance for the underdog in this field.