With the exception of three games scheduled for Monday night, the girls basketball regular season has come to a close. Last week, I introduced Tournament Simulations to TWISTR, and those figures were updated earlier today. I may or may not have a "live" version of the simulations available as the tournament progresses, but the linked page will remain "static" to look back on.
Before the tournament gets underway Tuesday, I wanted to throw together a little (ok, kinda long) preview based on how TWISTR sees the draw. Like with other blog posts, rankings reflect (1) a team's TWISTR rank as of January 28 and (2) the rank within that team's enrollment classification. Best of luck to everyone's favored teams this week and throughout February!
Top Contenders: Center Grove (18.4), Columbia City (14.1), Jennings County (13.1) Lawrence Central (13.0), South Bend Washington (12.5), Fort Wayne Snider (11.2), Franklin (10.0)
This year's 4A field is truly remarkable — just five points separate the top seven teams in the TWISTR ratings, and unlike in many sports where the top teams are geographically clustered, all seven play in different sectionals. It's given us one of the most wide-open fields I can remember in a state tournament, with high-level games guaranteed pretty much every night of the tournament in 4A, and the only class where there's not a clear favorite or two going into sectional play.
If you forced me to pick a couple favorites, I'd probably like No. 1 Center Grove, whose lone loss came in November, or the star power at No. 3 Lawrence Central (undefeated in the state of Indiana), but any of these seven are defensible choices. No. 5 Columbia City is undefeated in 4A, including a Hall of Fame classic championship win over No. 2 Jennings County and an early-season win over No. 4 Fort Wayne Snider. Both Jennings and Snider hold close wins over No. 6 South Bend Washington, and No. 7 Franklin split a pair of matchups with Center Grove. You can dice these teams' resumes up however you'd like and put them against each other — but the fact is that these teams have played each other a fair bit, almost every game has been close, and it would be hard to say any of these seven would be a true favorite over the others.
While these teams are split into seven different sectionals, geography will still play a role before we get to the semi-state. Lawrence Central has the toughest sectional matchup, with No. 8 Lawrence North looming on Friday night, and Columbia City will likely have to navigate No. 14 Homestead in its sectional final. Snider would draw a tricky opponent at the regional, no matter who wins Sectional 8, and a much-awaited rematch between Washington and No. 16 Lake Central is likely as well, but the highlight of the regional round should come down south, with Center Grove and Jennings County lined up to meet. While it's possible for six of our top seven teams to still be alive on semi-state Saturday, but I wouldn't bet on it.
The Next Tier: Lawrence North (2.9)
If it weren't for geography, No. 8 Lawrence North would almost certainly get a mention in the Top Contenders section. The Wildcats have played No. 3 Lawrence Central close twice on the road, losing by 2 in the Marion County tournament Dec. 7 and by 3 on Jan. 11 in a de-facto MIC championship game, and have a resume that includes wins over No. 9 Hamilton Southeastern, No. 10 Noblesville and No. 15 Bedford North Lawrence in 4A, as well as 3A No. 1 Norwell and No. 3 Gibson Southern. If the Wildcats can get over the hump against their township rival — this time on a neutral site — they'd immediately vault into the state contender conversation (LN wins in 10.0% of simulations where they win Sectional 10).
Dark Horses: Sectional 8 (2.5), Bedford North Lawrence (0.1), Brownsburg (0.1)
It's weird to talk about 4A for so long and not mention Sectional 8, and that's both a byproduct of a very balanced field this year at Hamilton Southeastern and none of the northside schools establishing themselves in the top tier over the course of the season. Host No. 9 Hamilton Southeastern and No. 12 Zionsville are on one half of the bracket, No. 10 Noblesville and No. 11 Fishers are on the other, and both Westfield and Carmel hold a win over one of the four favorites here. The winner here would be a slight, but not overwhelming underdog, if they match up with Snider at the regional.
Much like the field at Sectional 8, it is also weird to call No. 15 Bedford North Lawrence a dark horse — the Stars have won 12 straight Sectional 15 championships and are the defending 4A state champs, of course — but they are a definite underdog to Jennings County at the sectional this year. If Alabama signee and and will likely have to navigate a tricky semifinal matchup with Silver Creek just to get that opportunity. BNL has Alabama signee and potential Miss Basketball Chloe Spreen, though, and if they can pull a Saturday night upset over Jennings County, they could keep rolling to another deep tournament run.
I'm also taking No. 18 Brownsburg as a dark horse here, but in truth, any number of teams in Sectional 11 or 12 will feel they can make a run to semi-state in this "regional of life". The Bulldogs have been up and down this year, entering the tournament at 12–11, but they have a potential matchup edge in 6-foot-6 Purdue commit Avery Gordon that could make them dangerous against the right opponent. Brownsburg will have to beat both Avon and Plainfield (each of which holds a win over the Bulldogs) to get to the regional, where Franklin Central and Indianapolis Roncalli are the most likely opponents.
Also considered: Northridge (0.8), Homestead (0.4), Lake Central (0.3), Warsaw (0.2)Top Contenders: Norwell (39.0), Hamilton Heights (26.3), Greensburg (8.9), Indian Creek (8.4), Gibson Southern (6.3)
3A has a clearer hierarchy at the top, with No. 1 Norwell and No. 2 Hamilton Heights the top two by most any metric. Norwell's only losses are to top-15 4A squads, and the Knights hold one of the best wins in the state by any team in their Dec. 8 rivalry win at Columbia City. They've been at No. 1 in 3A in the TWISTR ratings all year long, and though their road isn't straightforward, as they'd face the Sectional 22 winner at regional, they should be considered the favorite in 3A. Heights, however, may have something to say about that. Led by dynamic scorer Camryn Runner, who should be an Indiana All-Star, the Huskies' resume includes an opening weekend win over Jennings County and a Hoosier Conference championship. A semi-state matchup between these two would be a treat.
The other three contenders here are all in the southern half of the draw, and all three could be in the semi-state field together. No. 4 Greensburg has had a strong year, and their sectional field is fairly navigable. No. 7 Indian Creek entered the season with high expectations, and like Greensburg, has a pretty navigable path to semi-state. No. 3 Gibson Southern has posted another great season, but they'll have to avenge a Dec. 5 loss to Evansville Memorial just to get out of the sectional (more on the Tigers in a minute).
The Next Tier: Sectional 22 (4.2), Evansville Memorial (3.0)
Sectional 22 has consistently been 3A's answer to Sectional 8, and this year is no different — when a team like Twin Lakes is an afterthought, you know it's a strong field. With any other draw, No. 5 Rensselaer Central (whose lone loss is to Hamilton Heights) would be a top contender, but the Bombers will have to navigate a sectional that features No. 8 Benton Central, No. 9 West Lafayette and No. 14 Western just to get a chance at … Norwell in the regional. It's a brutal regional pairing for whoever comes out of this field, but the winner will be in the conversation going into week two of the tournament.
It is probably a little unfair to list No. 6 Evansville Memorial here, given the Tigers are 20–3 with a win over sectional foe Gibson Southern, but having to go on the road for a sectional semifinal could be tricky. These two have been a couple of the best programs in 3A for some time, and there's a good chance of getting another tournament classic Friday night.
Dark Horses: Danville (1.7), Tippecanoe Valley (0.4)
No. 11 Danville has been a consistently strong program in 3A, and the Warriors have their best chance of getting to a semi-state in six years, with rival Tri-West (who Danville beat twice in the regular season) the only significant threat between them and the third weekend of the tournament.
No. 17 Tippecanoe Valley won a regional a season ago, and the Vikings have a pretty straightforward path to get back to the semi-state this year, without a single team in the 3A top 40 in their way. A late-season 32–30 win over aforementioned West Lafayette should give them some hope that they can make some noise when they get there, too.
Also considered: Washington (0.9), Jay County (0.5), Scottsburg (0.4)Top Contenders: South Knox (46.7), North Knox (18.1), Eastern Hancock (9.5), Eastbrook (7.9)
No. 1 South Knox and No. 2 North Knox have been tied at the hip all year, and it's been building toward a Sectional 47 showdown that may produce one of the games of the tournament on Friday night. Coming into the year, North Knox was a definitive favorite, bringing back almost everything from a 28–2 team that reached the final four, but their county rivals have stepped up and joined them in the upper echelon of 2A. North Knox won the regular-season game between these teams in overtime on Dec. 2 (the Warriors' lone loss is a 1-point defeat at BNL), and the winner of the rematch will become an odds-on favorite to win 2A when the buzzer sounds.
That said, it is really hard to find fault with anything No. 3 Eastern Hancock has done this year (their lone loss is to Lawrence North), and the Royals are absolutely a contender in 2A, with a semi-state rematch against North Knox potentially in the cards. This EH team is a little different from their squad last year, but Kenzie Koch is one of the state's best freshmen and could key a state run for Shari Doud's team.
Despite a season-ending loss to No. 11 Blackford on Friday night, No. 4 Eastbrook is TWISTR's favorite in a crowded 2A north, where any of eight teams should see a viable path to Indianapolis. The Panthers are 20–2, and are a senior-led group that lost 39–37 to Lapel at last year's regional. We could get a potential rematch at the same stage this year.
The Next Tier: Fort Wayne Luers (4.5), Carroll [Flora] (3.5), Lapel (2.2)
It feels cruel to separate all three of these teams from Eastbrook, but the model sees what the model sees. No. 5 Fort Wayne Luers is my personal favorite to come out of the north, after a 14–6 season against the No. 3-rated schedule in 2A that included a bona fide signataturure win Dec. 18 against Columbia City. No. 6 Carroll (Flora) may have the best player in 2A in Western Michigan-bound Alli Harness, and would match up with Luers at the regional level. The Cougars will almost certainly have to beat No. 12 Lafayette Central Catholic in the sectional semi-final to get there, though.
No. 7 Lapel entered the season with high expectations after their run to state a season ago, and the Bulldogs enter the 2024 tournament in a similar position as a season ago. They'll have to navigate a tricky sectional, and drew No. 9 Alexandria out of the gate (Lapel won both regular-season matchups). A regional rematch with Eastbrook looms if both advance out of the sectional, and the semi-state field will have more competitors. If Lapel can successfully draw on its experience from a season ago, it would be far from a shock to see them back in Indianapolis.
Dark Horses: Eastside (1.8), Parke Heritage (1.4), Linton-Stockton (1.0)
No. 13 Eastside has perhaps quietly posted a nice season, winning the Northeast Corner Conference tournament en route to a 21–3 record (their lone 2A loss is to Luers). The Blazers have the benefit of geography on their side and should reach the semi-state — they're the only top-25 team in the first quadrant of 2A.
No. 10 Parke Heritage has very much emerged this year in 2A, and assuming their junior-led core can navigate a straightforward sectional, will have the opportunity to break through in a tough regional matchup, likely against Eastern Hancock. The Wolves haven't lost since a Dec. 2 defeat at Benton Central, and either way should enter 2024–25 among the top state contenders.
There may not be a school worse located this year than No. 8 Linton-Stockton, who has slightly been forgotten about with their Sectional 47 counterparts North Knox and South Knox taking all the attention. The Miners, however, got a favorable draw — they should meet the NK/SK winner in the sectional final — and are playing their best basketball of the season entering the state tournament. In general, good teams with a defensive-minded style are a little undervalued by computer ratings, and I'd personally handicap Linton's chances at least a little higher than the model does. In my opinion, they are a very live underdog here, and a Miners win would blow open the 2A draw.
Also considered: Alexandria (0.8), Blackford (0.5), Lafayette Central Catholic (0.5), Northeastern (0.3)Top Contenders: Lanesville (53.0), Clinton Central (20.2), Borden (12.4)
The story of 1A this year has started and ended with two teams: No. 1 Lanesville and No. 2 Borden. The two teams have been at the top of the TWISTR ratings for the last couple months, and the Dec. 7 contest between the two — a 35–33 Lanesville win — served as an appetizer for what could be an instant classic in the Sectional 61 championship. It's a shame one of these two will be out of the picture by Feb. 3, but it almost guarantees one of the most intriguing games of the tournament on Sectional Saturday.
TWISTR has been a big fan of No. 3 Clinton Central all year long, and the Bulldogs' lone loss came Nov. 17 at 2A contender Carroll (Flora), 57–52. Aside from a great year, though, the biggest thing Clinton Central has going for it is geography: they'll be a 20-plus point favorite in every sectional and regional game, and would be an 8-point or better favorite against anyone else in the northern semi-state.
The Next Tier: Jac-Cen-Del (2.1), Marquette Catholic (1.8), Orleans (1.7), Tri (1.7), Caston (1.5), Springs Valley (1.3)
I want to talk about two teams first here: No. 4 Orleans and No. 5 Springs Valley. These are really strong 1A teams, and with any other state tournament path, they'd be among the top contenders. Instead, they're almost teams with an outside chance — and that's because each would have to beat the other in the sectional, then Lanesville or Borden just to get out of the regional. It's a brutal draw that will knock three of the top five teams in the state out before mid-February, and handcuffs either's chance of a deep run. Orleans may feel their chances are bolstered, though, by a regular-season win over Borden.
No. 8 Jac-Cen-Del's name is synonymous with success in 1A girls basketball, and the Eagles have a clear path to a semi-state appearance, with No. 16 Oldenburg Academy in the sectional their only serious threat in the first two weeks of the tournament. In an ideal world, J-C-D can navigate its path easily and get some chaos in other parts of the draw, giving them a real chance of a state finals appearance.
In the northern half of the draw, No. 9 Caston is well-positioned to finally break through and win its first sectional title in 39 years, though they'll have to avenge a Jan. 11 loss to Tri-County to accomplish that. The Comets opened 17–0, but have lost three of four to end the regular season. No. 10 Marquette Catholic has returned to prominence this season, though the Blazers dropped their final two regular-season games after an 18–2 start. No. 14 Tri also ended its regular season on a sour note, losing by a big margin to Eastern Hancock on Thursday, but the Titans are well-positioned to return to the semi-state with a manageable and an extremely favorable regional draw. All three could reach the semi-state together alongside Clinton Central.
Dark Horses: Sectional 64 (2.3), Tri-Township (0.3), Bethesda Christian (0.2)
Sectional 64 contains three strong teams that all have more or less the same story this year — No. 6 Tecumseh, No. 7 Wood Memorial and No. 11 Northeast Dubois are all between two and four games above .500, and each has played a top-six schedule in 1A. Put simply, these are good, battle-tested teams despite their record, and whoever emerges from this field (even if it's Evansville Christian) will be favored in their regional matchup, likely against Trinity Lutheran.
Where the "Next Tier" contains some northern teams that ended their regular season on a down note, No. 15 Tri-Township should feel good about itself entering the tournament, picking up two wins over 2A sectional favorite South Central (Union Mills) and a season-ending win over Marquette Catholic in the last week of the year. The Tigers are 21–1, though would have to avenge a Jan. 5 loss to Washington Twp. to win their first ever sectional championship.
I'm picking No. 24 Bethesda Christian as my lowest-ranked dark horse in any class, thanks in part to their weak sectional. The Patriots should cruise into the regional, and perhaps have the weirdest combo of a best win and worst loss of any team in the state this year — they're one of just seven 1A teams to beat a team in the TWISTR overall top 100, downing Lafayette Central Catholic on Nov. 28, but also lost to Indianapolis Scecina (ranked No. 339 overall) on Dec. 16. Their slow style of play keeps games tight, which could give them a shot if they get to the semi-state.
Also considered: Fort Wayne Blackhawk (0.7), Oldenburg Academy (0.4), Vincennes Rivet (0.1)