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January 22, 2024

Blog: Adding tournament simulations to TWISTR (and sharing some thoughts on the girls basketball draw)

Every year around this time, I'm reminded a little of Whose Line Is It Anyway? — you know, the show where everything's made up and the points don't matter? In Indiana, teams play a three-month season and, at the end of it … none of it really matters. Because we cling to a random draw for our state tournament format, there's no real benefit gained from having a strong regular season, nor punishment for underperforming. It's poetic in some sense, frustrating in others, but it's how we do it.

If you're interested in diving into the draw a little bit yourself, I introduced a new page to the TWISTR site, titled Tournament Simulations. They're called simulations and not probabilities, as they're really the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo model runs, but they should provide an overall guide to many of the contenders in this year's tournament. I'm not gonna dive too deep into the methodology here, but I do want to pass along some thoughts of my own on the tournament draw.

Quick note: When rankings are used below, they generally represent TWISTR class ratings as of January 21, 2024. I don't love presenting them this way, but it's easier than typing out "TWISTR's No. #-rated team" over and over again.

4A is wide open

If No. 1 Center Grove and No. 8 Franklin were to meet tomorrow, TWISTR would only favor the top-ranked Trojans by five points. It's a spread that checks out given the two teams split a pair of meetings in November, and it's great news for fans, who can expect a toss-up matchup with state title implications almost every night of the 4A tournament:

• Sectional Friday? All eyes will likely be on the third meeting between No. 3 Lawrence Central and No. 7 Lawrence North.
• Saturday? We're probably getting a matchup between four top-12 teams at Sectional 8, where host No. 9 Hamilton Southeastern and No. 12 Zionsville are on one half of the bracket, and No. 10 Noblesville and No. 11 Fishers are opposite.
• Down the road? No. 1 Center Grove and No. 2 Jennings County would meet on Regional Saturday if both can navigate their respective sectionals.
• Semi-State Saturday could see No. 4 Columbia City, No. 5 Fort Wayne Snider and No. 6 South Bend Washington all still alive in the north, and No. 1 Center Grove, No. 3 Lawrence Central and No. 8 Franklin all remaining in the south draw.

No matter how it all shakes out, the crowded field at the top and geographic diversity of those contenders should get us an intriguing finale to the girls basketball season Feb. 24 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Regionals of death … and life

Real tournament junkies know the regional draw is often more meaningful than the sectional draw, and the IHSAA's move to a one-game regional and two-game semi-state last year made the regional pairings even more important. In soccer, when multiple strong teams are drawn into the same group during a tournament, it's often referred to as the "group of death", and we're adopting this concept.

We already talked about the potential No. 1 Center Grove–No. 2 Jennings County matchup in 4A earlier, but it's far from the only instance where the regional draw means a strong team is guaranteed to be sitting at home by the middle of February. Some other examples below. Note: We'll ignore the 3A "far south" and 2A "north central" regional pairings, as each of the four feeder sectionals have contenders, meaning any draw outcome would have been tough.

• One of the 3A "north central" regionals was guaranteed to produce a "regional of death", with No. 1 Norwell, No. 2 Hamilton Heights, and Sectional 22 (which has five top-100 overall teams) all feeding in, and it will likely be No. 1 Norwell playing the winner of Sectional 22, led by No. 7 Rensselaer Central.
• For the second straight year, the 2A "mid-state" regionals have the two favorites potentially paired in one game, this time with No. 4 Eastern Hancock and No. 10 Parke Heritage lined up if both can get to the second week of the tournament.
• The ping pong balls committed their worst sin in the 1A "far south", where they matched Sectional 61 (featuring No. 1 Lanesville and No. 2 Borden) against Sectional 63 (No. 4 and No. 5 Orleans). It guarantees that at least three of TWISTR's current 1A top five won't make it to the tournament's third week.

If we have "regionals of death", we also have "regionals of life", which help promote upstart teams making surprising runs deep into the tournament:

• In 4A, Sectionals 11 (No. 25 Franklin Central and No. 30 Roncalli, among others) and 12 (No. 18 Brownsburg, No. 24 Plainfield and No. 34 Avon) avoided a prospective matchup with one of the Lawrence Twp. schools, meaning one of the five mentioned teams is likely to still be playing on Feb. 17.
• The "far north" produced a couple true "regionals of life" — in 3A, No. 24 NorthWood and No. 26 New Prairie are the respective favorites in their matched sectionals, while chalk would give us a 2A regional matchup between No. 32 Andrean and No. 38 South Central (Union Mills).
• We could also see a regional matchup between No. 18 Northeastern and No. 24 Sheridan in 2A, a pair of teams looking to get over the hump with a deep tournament run in 2024.

Cursing … and celebrating the draw

Some like the randomness of the draw, others hate it. I'm in the latter group, as it's always nice to see favorites or key matchups delayed until the semi-state or state rounds where possible. IMO, the tournament is at its best and most compelling when more of the best teams are still alive, and it's great to see championship-calibre matchups played in a championship environment. Some of my gripes about this year's draw:

• I have already mentioned it, but it's a shame that Sectionals 61 and 63 were paired together in 1A.
• It's always a little anti-climactic when a sectional ends in a blowout after a classic first-round or semi-final games, and we have a few potential offenders this year:
  • 4A Sectional 12 will pit No. 24 Plainfield against either No. 18 Brownsburg or No. 34 Avon on Friday night. The winner could be a 40-plus point favorite against either Terre Haute school in the sectional final.
  • In 3A, Sectional 32 gives us a prime example this year, where No. 3 Gibson Southern and No. 6 Evansville Memorial are both state title contenders … and likely to meet Friday night. Either would be a 30-plus point favorite in a title game.
  • At 2A Sectional 40, No. 7 Lapel and No. 8 Alexandria will meet on Wednesday night, with the other two solid teams in the field (Monroe Central and Wapahani) on the same side of the bracket.
  • For the second year running, 2A Sectional 42 is an offender, though at least No. 4 Eastern Hancock and No. 21 Triton Central are playing Friday night this year instead of Tuesday. Either would likely coast in Saturday's championship.
• No. 10 Scottsburg, No. 18 Charlestown and No. 19 Corydon Central all being on the same half in Sectional 30 is a bummer. At least the Warriorettes drew the bye?

For balance, though, we should also celebrate the spots where the draw got it "right":

• Sectional 8 is always tough no matter the draw, but it was nice to see the top four teams split on opposite sides, as referenced earlier.
• Whenever there's two clear favorites in a sectional, or three top contenders, it's always nice to see a balanced draw to set up a great Saturday final and reward strong teams. Some of my favorite examples this year:
  • 4A Sectional 6 features No. 4 Columbia City and No. 13 Homestead on opposite sides; both are heavy favorites to reach the final.
  • 4A Sectional 15 has No. 2 Jennings County on one half of the bracket, with No. 16 Bedford North Lawrence and No. 19 Silver Creek opposite. It's a nearly perfectly drawn field.
  • The 3A "sectional of death", 22, splits its five contenders pretty nicely, with No. 7 Rensselaer Central getting a bye to likely play No. 12 West Lafayette in the top half, and No. 8 Benton Central likely to play the winner of No. 14 Western and No. 23 Twin Lakes on Friday in the bottom.
  • A once-strong 2A Sectional 39 field has disintegrated around the two favorites, but it was nice to see No. 3 Eastbrook and No. 12 Blackford lined up to meet Saturday night.
  • 1A Sectional 60 will likely produce a regional winner, and No. 7 Jac-Cen-Del and No. 15 Oldenburg Academy are on opposite sides of the bracket.
  • And while I griped about their regional pairing, both Sectionals 61 (No. 1 Lanesville and No. 2 Borden) and 63 (No. 4 Springs Valley and No. 5 Orleans) saw the favorites on opposite sides, paving the way for two great championship games.
• At the regional level, No. 3 Clinton Central and No. 11 Tri are head-and-shoulders better than everyone else in the 1A "north central" sectionals, so I apprciated seeing these schools drawn to feed into separate regionals.

Other assorted notes

While you don't win or lose titles on draw night, I'm more bullish on certain programs' chances based on the outcomes of the draw:

• In 4A, No. 8 Franklin has to be thrilled to avoid the top teams in the 4A "far south" (No. 1 Center Grove and No. 2 Jennings County) until the semi-state round.
• No. 4 Columbia City also got a good regional draw in 4A, likely seeing No. 32 McCutcheon if they can get past No. 13 Homestead in their sectional.
• At the 3A level, No. 17 Tippecanoe Valley, No. 2 Hamilton Heights and No. 11 Danville all have strong regional title odds, thanks in part to a favorable second-weekend draw.
• No. 9 Linton-Stockton has kinda fallen out of the discussion this year in 2A in a way I don't think is fair, with the Miners sharing Sectional 47 with both No. 1 South Knox and No. 2 North Knox. Linton got a great draw, opposite of the two contenders, and strong defensive teams like them are always a tough out in February.
• The winner at 1A Sectional 60, likely No. 7 Jac-Cen-Del or No. 15 Oldenburg Academy, will be a heavy favorite at the regional against the winner of Sectional 59, getting a "deserved" regional draw.
• A quartet of strong 1A Sectional 64 teams that have flown below the radar got a lifeline Sunday, as the winner will match up with Sectional 62's winner, likely No. 18 Trinity Lutheran. The field at 64 is headlined by No. 9 Wood Memorial and No. 10 Tecumseh, though No. 13 Northeast Dubois or No. 25 Evansville Christian winning would be far from a shock. All four teams have hovered around .500 all year, playing some of the toughest schedules in 1A.

One of my biggest criticisms of the IHSAA's change to the tournament format last year was that it missed an opportunity to move some teams closer to home for the regional round, so I'm glad to see the IHSAA is waiting until after the sectional round this year to assign regional sites. Correspondingly, it was nice to see a high number of neighboring sectionals paired together, for instance in 3A, where the winners at Sectionals 31 and 32 can now meet at Crawford County instead of trekking clear to Charlestown.